Netflix (NFLX) is set to report Q2 results shortly after the bell (conference call scheduled for 6:00pm ET). 

Cap IQ Consensus estimates Q2 EPS of $0.16 vs. guidance of $0.15 (vs. $0.09 in 2Q16), w/revs of $2.76 bln (+40.3% y/y).

On the Q2 call investors will be listening closely for details on subscriber growth, with an ear specifically on international expansion as growth.

Currently, approximately 50% of Netflix's ~100 mln subscribers are domestic, and the company is focusing on international expansion as a key to drive subscriber growth internationally. 

Q2 Guidance

  • Total Streaming
    • Revenue $2.64 bln
    • Total Membership 101.95 mln 
    • Net Adds 3.20 mln
  • Domestic Streaming
    • Revenue $1.499 bln
    • Contribution Margin 36.8%
    • Total Membership 51.45 mln
    • Net Adds 0.60 mln
  • International Streaming
    • Revenue $1.141 bln
    • Contribution Margin -2.5% 
    • Total Memberships 50.49 mln 
    • Net Adds 2.6 mln

 

Q1 Recap

  • Reports Q1 earnings of $0.40 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.37; revenues rose 34.7% year/year to $2.64 bln vs the $2.64 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
  • Guides to Q2 EPS of $0.15 vs Capital Q consensus of $0.25.
  • Q1 Domestic Net Additions 1.42 mln vs 1.50 mln guidance; Q2 guidance is for 0.60mln, expectations were for ~0.5 mln; Q4 adds was 1.93 mln. 
  • Q1 International Net Additions 3.53 mln vs 3.70 mln guidance; Q2 guidance is for 2.60 mln, expectations were for ~2.1 mln; Q4 adds was 5.12 mln.

TECHS:

Technically, NFLX has rallied for a gain of +13% ahead of tonight's print. In doing so, it had also reclaimed its 50-day moving average and is 3% from its all-time highs of 166.87.

The "path of least resistance" is for Buyers to make the pop to fresh new highs.

RESULTS

Netflix misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.15 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.16; revenues rose 32.3% year/year to $2.79 bln vs the $2.76 bln Capital IQ Consensus.

  • See Full List of Key Metrics in 16:14 comment

  • Co issues upside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.32, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.22 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q3 revs of $2969 vs. $2.88 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

NFLX Currently trading up ~9% at around 175/share.