Match (MTCH) will report first quarter results this afternoon and host a call at 8:30 tomorrow morning.
Match is expected to report Q1 adj. EPS of $0.24 (vs. $0.12 last year) with revenue up 29% to $385 million and EBITDA +37% to $118 million.
Match guided for Q1 EBITDA of $115-120 million on rev of $380-390 mln.
Match has guided for FY18 EBITDA of $550-600 million on rev of $1.5-1.6 billion.
The Street expects Q2 EBITDA +29% to $142 million on revenue of $390 million (+26%).
Match is a pure-play online dating company but the prize asset is Tinder, which nearly doubled paid subs (+90% to 3.1 million) and more than doubled revenue in 2017.
Match's other main dating brands Match.com, OkCupid and POF are displaying stable trends.
Match has always had a high short interest given the low barriers to entry of online. With +2 billion users, Facebook's network effects are unparalleled.
Facebook's dating initiative seems unlikely to impact Match's business near term, but it will likely continue to weigh on sentiment and the stock's previously elevated multiples going forward.
TECHS:
- IAC (IAC) still owns 81% of Match; ~55% of the remaining ~51 mln share float is sold short.
- MTCH has a ~$10 billion market cap and trades at ~29x earnings estimates or ~6x sales.
- The options market implies a ~12% move in the stock by next Friday's expiration.
- The stock has stabilized in the mid-$30s after falling from ~$47 since Facebook announced the new dating feature last week.
55% of the float is sold short.
MTCH has a ~$10 billion market cap and trades at ~29x earnings estimates or ~6x sales. The options market implies a ~12% move in the stock by next Friday's expiration.