Social media giant Twitter is scheduled to report Q3 results tonight with a conference call to follow.

The current Capital IQ Consensus Estimate calls for Q3 EPS of $0.05 (vs $0.14 a year ago) on sales declines of -6.1% to $773.16 mln.

Ad spend could likely have recovered given the positive guidance from other social peers.

Shares moved a bit in mid-August when the company tweeted about rumors of a possible subscription service, though no such item was confirmed.

TECHS

TWTR steps into the Q3 print garnering a $40.4 bln market capitalization, trading at roughly 7.1x EV / 2021E revenue and 23.7x EV / 2021E adj. EBITDA, according to Stifel.

Shares tapped an almost 5 1/2 year high this morning, up now about +154% off the March 2020 lows. TWTR is trading at nearly a six year high.

RESULTS:

Twitter beats by $0.14, beats on revs; advertising revs +15% yr/yr to $808 mln; avg. mDAU was 187 mln, +29% yr/yr

Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.19 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.14 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.05; revenues rose 13.7% year/year to $936.23 mln vs the $773.16 mln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

• Advertising revenue totaled $808 million, up 15% year over year.

• Total ad engagements increased 27% year over year.

Average mDAU was 187 million for Q3, compared to 145 million in the same period of the previous year and compared to 186 million in the previous quarter.

Average US mDAU was 36 million for Q3, compared to 30 million in the same period of the previous year and compared to 36 million in the previous quarter.

Average international mDAU was 152 million for Q3, compared to 115 million in the same period of the previous year and compared to 150 million in the previous quarter.

Guidance:

• "As we approach the US election, however, it is hard to predict how advertiser behavior could change. In Q2, many brands slowed or paused spend in reaction to US civil unrest, only to increase spend relatively quickly thereafter in an effort to catch up. The period surrounding the US election is somewhat uncertain, but we have no reason to believe that September's revenue trends can't continue, or even improve, outside of the election-related window."

• "Given improving business conditions, we also intend to continue investing in our most important work and expect total GAAP costs and expenses to grow closer to 20% year over year in Q4. Remember, that was our intention for the full year before the pandemic. We expect SBC expense to be relatively flat sequentially and we expect capex to remain over $250 million in Q4 as a result of our ongoing data center build-out."

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