Anxiety and fear are running high as we head into Tuesday’s election. This fear is aided by a COVID-19 ramp, key economic data on deck, and a Fed meeting right smack dab in between.
With all that on deck it’s important to see where things line up heading into tomorrow’s election. Obviously, the election is not going to be the end all be all for the market’s sake. But, it will be a large domino that will start to tilt the scale and paint a clearer picture moving forward.
First and foremost, it’s important to note that the SPX and NDX both have taken a solid hit into the election. With that being the case, a lot of the market risk has been pulled and the VIX has already prepped for the event. Specifically, the SPX was down around 8% and the NDX down 9% from their October 12th highs.
Beyond the selloffs, indications suggest that we are near oversold conditions and the data suggests we are starting to trend in the right direction. In addition to this, the market support has appeared to hold for now. The importance of the market support at this level is that the overall market is holding the breakdown level from February and the Nasdaq is holding above its prior channel resistance top it resided in for nearly three years (both pictured below).
I’m going to start with the technical situation and then work my way into the scenario possibilities for the election as a whole. There will be an audio and video version of this up tomorrow so look for that if you don’t like to read.
Indicators:
The SPX components’ 10Day and 50Day moving averages suggest we may have a near term oversold scenario.
Additionally, the number of stocks above the 10-day of 5% on Wednesday was extreme and suggests a trading low could be near.
Volatility remains elevated
Cash levels are near three month highs
SPX weekly stochastic trending toward oversold
The VIX is pricing in a volatility pull after the event which can cause a buoy for assets
With the above indications for a potential near term floor and with the market hitting support into a highly sought after event investors could look for a relief rally regardless of which candidate wins. It is important that we take this with a grain of salt though and understand that we are technically still broken. As long as we are holding above 3200 look for the chop to potentially take us higher. A close and break below 3200 and we absolutely must hold 3100 (give or take). Without getting too “wonky” below that level and volatility forces us back into a negative feedback loop.
What Works?
I recently shared a breakdown of stocks that will be favored in different election scenarios with my subscribers. I will break down some of this below but for the sake of ease I’m going to pull out the simplest case scenario regardless of outcome.
The following groups are the most favorable regardless of who actually wins the election.
Defense
Infrastructure
Domestic Small Caps
Earnings growth as a result of stimulus
The following groups are expected to be favorable under a Trump presidency
Energy
Banks/Banking
The following groups are expected to be favorable under a Biden presidency
Alternative Energy
Health Insurers
Cannibus
Debt Relief
The following groups are expected to be unfavorable under a Trump presidency
Health Insurers
Drug Manufacturers
The following groups are expected to be unfavorable under a Biden presidency
Private Prisons
Big Box Retailers
Energy
Banking
The following groups are expected to be unfavorable regardless of outcome
Big Box Retailers
Mega Cap Tech
Semi’s
Retail
China
Drug Makers
With the above framework we can go over some of the logic around the possible outcomes.
Scenario 1: Prolonged Contest
There are two total contest scenarios here, one being a contested election without civil unrest and the other being a contested election with civil unrest. The single most important thing to remember regardless of driving event is that markets dislike uncertainty. Currently we have an elevated VIX at around 38. The more unrest that exists behind a contested election the more likely we find ourselves in a scenario where the market starts to break. A break would create a negative feedback loop and sellers would re-emerge. Any scenario for rapid COVID relief would be shelfed and the market would remain on edge for any potential social/civil unrest.
Scenario 2: Quick Contest
In an event like this there are a couple of possible outcomes (in my opinion). One, you see an instance where the market quickly sells off before realizing that the contest has no merit or will not last. Two, you see a rally through the contested headline and a re-evaluation after the knee jerk.
Scenario 3: Trump and Split
This is my personal least liked scenario. The primary reason for this is not political. From a market perspective the bickering would continue and things would require continuous attention. This would be similar to 2016 and investors are slightly offside for this event. In this case, we’d probably see a similar repeat to what we saw in 2016 with one caveat; a mean reversion of the Biden basket that has been getting a boost since the odds of a Biden presidency were realistic. There are two things to consider here though. First, we already have four years of Trump so the hopium likely won’t be as high. That said, it goes both ways. There’s a belief that Democrats would be tougher on Mega-Cap companies than Republicans. Assuming this is true, the market would likely get a little more of a tailwind on the back of this given the weight of these giants. All in all though, this would be similar to what we got now and that just sucks.
Scenario 4: Biden and Full Democrat
A scenario like this would be market positive just like the previous scenario would be. The primary reason for this is that there would be less “sausage making” in the government and the bias would be “more will get done.” Secondarily, a situation like this would suggest more money in the hands of consumers on the back of a COVID stimulus relief bill. Though this would likely yield a relief rally, the thing to watch for is a re-pricing of an anticipated tax hike. The other thing to note here is if Mega-Caps would create a drag on performance because of the caution investors yield behind this event. The primary beneficiaries here would likely be small caps and industrials.
Scenario 5: Biden and Split
Typically, the most ideal scenarios is for the Presidency and Senate to carry the same ticket. A split, would be, for lack of a better term, fucking annoying. Though annoying, it is understood and believed that Biden is more of the political type and would be less stubborn and there would ultimately be more neutrality in Washington. With all that said, this scenario would be less choppy than the currently climate we’re facing.
Scenario 7: Trump and Full Democrat
This is another difficult scenario in my opinion. The bickering would be endless and the finger pointing would be annoying. That said, there would be a more congruent Washington and this would at least be better than what we have now.
NO CONTEST:
Whatever the outcome is, it would be preferred that it gets ripped off like a band-aid. The quicker and more decisive the outcome the more quickly the market will price it in and move on. Personally, from a market perspective, I am pulling for a unanimous decision that we can just move on from and focus on the next annoying thing that we will forget two weeks later.
OUTLIERS AND DANGERS:
As always, there is trepidation to take into account. For me the primary thing I’m cautious about is if there is a lame duck in the White House that refuses the results and starts playing defense. The scenario I am going to play out goes like this; A scenario where Trump refuses the results of the election and stalls things up in the courts while COVID rises. The stall prevents Washington from moving more quickly on the stimulus and we prolong getting money out to folks. A scenario like this by itself is not doom and gloom. The problem comes if there is a scenario like this and we start to incur other issues. Think of this as maxing out your credit card for Christmas gifts and not being sure if you will keep your job or not. In this scenario, your car better not break down or you’re f’d. I am singling Trump out on this because there is a presumption that Biden will “play politics” and as such is less likely to cause a ruckus.
TECHS and Data:
We’ve been in a range for quite some time. There is a potential that we set a double top recently in the SPX and ES and we’re hanging on to support into all these volatility catalysts. That said, the synchronized global recovery backdrop and the Fed safety net create opportunities in this market. It is likely that when all is said and done the single most important thing moving forward will not be the election, but rather, how COVID disrupts the global synchronized recovery, how the consumer is impacted by COVID domestically, and how soon fiscal relief can get out to Americans.
Below is a data dump and technicals.
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