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Ghosted (SNAP Earnings)

Snap is scheduled to report its Q1 results after the close and host a conference call at 5 PM ET.

Current analyst estimates call for adjusted loss per share of $0.08 (vs -$0.10 last year) on revs of $420.2 mln (+31%y/y) and EBITDA of roughly ($96.6 mln).

Snap currently has a market cap of $18 bln and trades at a P/S of 8.8x.

Short interest is ~11% of its share float

RESULTS:

Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.08 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of ($0.08);

Revenues rose 44.4% year/year to $462.5 mln vs the $420.01 mln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

Daily active users were 229 million in Q1 2020, an increase of 39 million or 20% year-over-year.

Daily active users increased sequentially and year-over-year in each of North America, Europe, and Rest of World.

Given the uncertainties related to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the rapidly shifting macro conditions, we are not providing our expectations for revenue or Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2020.

Netflix missed by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; reports Q1 net adds of 15.77 mln vs 7.0 mln prior guidance (pre-pandemic)  (433.83 -3.66)

Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $1.57 per share, $0.07 worse than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $1.64; revenues rose 27.6% year/year to $5.77 bln vs the $5.75 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

  • Global streaming net adds of 15.77 mln vs Jan guidance (pre-pandemic) of 7.00 mln.

  • UCAN (US & Canada) ARPU was $13.09 in Q1 vs $11.45 a year ago. EMEA ARPU was $10.40 vs $10.23 a year ago.

Despite paid net additions that were higher than forecast, revenue was in-line with guidance due to the appreciation in the US dollar. Excluding F/X, streaming ARPU grew 8% year over year.

Operating margin of 16.6% (vs. 10.2% in the prior year quarter) was lower than the 18.0% forecast as the co incurred $218 mln in incremental content costs due to paused productions and hardship fund commitments.

  • Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $1.81 vs. $1.54 S&P Capital IQ Consensus; sees Q2 revs of $6.048 bln vs. $5.95 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

    • Guides to Q2 Global streaming net adds of 7.5 mln.

    Almost all filming has now been stopped globally, with the exception of a few countries like Korea and Iceland.

  • Membership growth has temporarily accelerated due to home confinement. International revenue will be less than previously forecast due to the dollar rising sharply. Due to the production shutdown, some cash spending on content will be delayed, improving free cash flow.

  • During the first two months of Q1, membership growth was similar to the prior two years, including in UCAN. Then, with lockdown orders in many countries starting in March, many more households joined Netflix to enjoy entertainment. This timing of paid membership additions also affected ARPU; this was the primary driver of the sequential decline in streaming ARPU as the revenue impact from these additions late in the quarter will be mostly felt in Q2 and beyond.

  • Co continues to target a 16% operating margin for the full year 2020, despite the extra costs in Q1. As a reminder, more than half of revenue is not denominated in US dollars and co does not hedge FX exposure. If the US dollar remains at these elevated levels (or strengthens further), co may target modestly slower growth in annual operating margin progression next year.


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