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To The Max (KMX Earnings)

CarMax (KMX) is set to report Q1 (May) results tomorrow before the open (last time it reported at 6:50am ET) with a call to follow at 9am ET.

The CapitalIQ consensus for Q1 (May) non-GAAP EPS is $0.14 and for revenue it's $2.66 bln.

This will be our first glimpse of how the pandemic is affecting KMX. The company was on a great roll when FY20 (Feb) ended and spring/summer is a key selling season for them, so the timing of the virus is particularly unfortunate.

The good news is that consumers appear to keep buying vehicles.

KMX does not provide guidance (even before the pandemic), so analysts are a bit in the dark when they create their models.

KMX tends to report EPS upside, as it has done in seven of the past eight quarters and the beats are pretty sizeable in the $0.09-0.17 range over the past six quarters.

Car buying seems to have been continuing but we'll see with KMX's report. A tailwind is the fact that interest rates are way down, which is very helpful for used car sales.

It will be interesting to see if the online used car buying platforms Carvana (CVNA) and recent IPO Vroom (VRM) captured any market share during the pandemic while KMX had some stores closed. However, KMX may not have data on this even if it did happen.


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