Chipotle (CMG) is set to report Q2 results today after the close with a call to follow at 4:30pm ET.

Analysts are expecting a pretty big drop in EPS on a yr/yr basis due to the pandemic and limitations on in-premise dining.

Current CapitalIQ consensus is for EPS to fall sharply to $0.40 from $3.99 a year ago while the revenue decline is more muted at $1.34 bln from $1.43 bln a year ago.

In terms of metrics to watch, same restaurant comps will be of the upmost importance.

A key metric to watch for is digital sales. This is especially true with Covid on the rise and with their partnership with Uber Eats.

TECHS:

In terms of what to expect relative to consensus, CMG typically beats pretty handily. In the past seven quarters, CMG has beat EPS consensus every quarter by double digits, ranging from $0.11-0.60.

The stock has been on quite a tear in recent months, going from $415 at its mid-March low to $1175 currently. That tells us there is a lot of good news already priced in, so any stumble/in-line results could take a bite out of the stock. However, CMG seems to have performed well during the pandemic thus far.

RESULTS:

Chipotle Mexican Grill reports EPS in-line, beats on revs

  • Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.40 per share, in-line with the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.40; revenues fell 4.8% year/year to $1.36 bln vs the $1.34 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

    • Comparable restaurant sales declined 9.8%

      • Comps by Month: 

        • April -24.4%

        • May -7%

        • June +2%

  • Comparable restaurant sales declined 9.8%

  • Comparable restaurant sales in July have continued to improve and are up 6.4% month to date including about a 1.4% positive impact from the July 4th weekend and about a 2.7% negative impact due to under-performing restaurants in the Northeast and international markets, as well as restaurant closures due to COVID-19.

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