What can we say about this piece of crap? No support on the chart, part time CEO, and part time investors. 

TWTR reported Q3 results at 4:10pm. Current consensus stands at EPS of $0.12 on Revenue of $710M.

Shares of TWTR have been under steady selling pressure since hitting $55 last April. The slide has led the stock to all time lows as it trades in the $14 area ahead of tonight's report. A lack of growth in its user base has been a key in driving the stock lower.People are questioning TWTR's viability compared to it's primary social media peer Facebook (FB) which continues to grow at a faster rate despite a user base that is 5x the size. TWTR has also had issues with it's top management as there were four notable departures. A concern for investors as the co is in the midst of a turnaround plan.

The combined issues have led to sentiment dropping to an all time low. Investors would like to see signs that the turnaround is starting to show some rewards despite the departures. And perhaps most importantly investors would like to see a stabilization of the user base.

Key Metrics

  • Monthly Active Users- Q3 Total average MAUs were 320 mln, up 11% y/y, and compared to 316 million in the previous quarter (Current expectations are 324 mln). 

  • Excluding SMS Fast Followers, MAUs were 307 million for the third quarter, up 8% y/y, and compared to 304 million in the previous quarter. (4Q15 was 292 mln)

  • Q3 Mobile MAUs represented approximately 80% of total MAUs.
  • Q3 Advertising revenue totaled $513 million, an increase of 60% y/y.
  • Q3 Mobile advertising revenue was 86% of total advertising revenue.
  • Q3 Data licensing and other revenue totaled $56 million, an increase of 37% y/y.

Guidance

  • TWTR issued downside guidance for Q4, projecting revenue in the range of $695-710 mln vs. then-$741.70 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
  • Q4 Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be in the range of $155-175 mln.
  • GAAP expenses are projected to include the vast majority of the $5-15 mln of total restructuring charges expected from corporate restructuring activities. These charges are projected to be $10-20 mln. The majority of corporate restructuring charges will be in Q4 (this is excluded from Q4 EBITDA guidance).
  • Capital expenditures are projected to be no more than $110 million.
  • TWTR is expected to guide for Q1 and FY16
    • Q1 Capital IQ consensus- EPS $0.08, Revenue $629 mln.
    • FY16 Capital IQ consensus $0.54, Revenue $3.093 bln.

Q3 Recap

TWTR reported Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.10 per share, $0.05 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.05. Revenues rose 57.6% year/year to $569 mln vs the $562.17 mln Capital IQ Consensus.

  • Revenue Breakdown
    • Advertising revenue totaled $513 million, an increase of 60% y/y (Q2 +63%)
    • Mobile advertising revenue was 86% of total advertising revenue.
    • Data licensing and other revenue totaled $56 million, an increase of 37% y/y (Q2 +44% y/y)
    • U.S. revenue totaled $370 million, an increase of 54% y/y (Q2 +53% y/y)
    • International revenue totaled $199 million, an increase of 65% y/y (Q2 +78% y/y).

BIRD SHIT

Q4 EPS of $0.16 vs $0.12 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

Q4 Monthly Active Users 320 mln (+10% y/y); Street Expectations were for approx flat q/q; Q3 was 324 mln (+11% y/y), 4Q14 was 292 mln

 

 

 

Comment