One Simple Truth

“Never take advice (or an opinion) from somebody who doesn’t have to live with the consequences.”

— Mark Cuban

I want to start by giving a little insight about who I am. I was born (beyond) poor and was fortunate enough that my parents were very qualified educationally. To my benefit, and thanks to them, I have been able to live a predominantly suburban upbringing.

While in university I was able to capitalize on the housing bubble and experienced my first wave of growth in the market. Between the years 2007 and 2011 I was in the middle of leveraging pretty much everything I’d ever earned in hopes to build a web business with the eventual goal of an exit. This of course came during a stretch the most difficult financial conditions in modern history. During that stretch, I was levered to the fucking tits, living in “grind mode” barely earning a livable wage (my founding members and I all earned roughly $13.50/hour in first, San Francisco, and then, Los Angeles CA).

I wanted to start there so you get an idea of who I am and what circumstances I come from. I also wanted to start there so you understand that the following is not coming from a place of malice nor disparagement. Quite the opposite actually. The recent circumstances got me thinking of how lucky I am and have been. This recent exogenous event has caused me to recall those times. It’s caused me to imagine how things could have spiraled out of control or turned out differently should something like that have happened while I was levered and struggling the way I was. In a situation like that I likely would have lost everything and would have found myself reset to zero. No startup exit, no market gains, no houses, no happiness. So I sympathize with those affected by something like this that did not foresee it.

If you are one of those people, hang in there, think things through, and plan to the best of your capabilities.

From this point on, if you are one of those people that do not like harsh reality please do not read any further. The following is a relay of information accumulated over the course of eight years. If you prefer to listen to the audio version, press play.

I have never advertised myself as a “nice guy” nor do I care what anyone’s opinion of me is. In general, I try to operate as a decent human being (in general) and try to treat people how I’d like to be treated. Obviously this is the internet, and the internet definitely brings out the worst of us, collectively, so everything is taken with a grain of salt.

The irony of the internet and FinTwit/StockTwits in general that it is a collection of opinions on finance and stocks and the requisite for becoming an “authority” on these topics is nothing like the requirements for becoming an authority on these subjects in the real world. What I mean by that is that the “rags to riches” story sells online whereas in the real world of finance where you went to school, what you got your degree in, and what your performance is like matters more. Coincidentally, in both worlds “who’s in your social circle” matters. If you are “friendly” with the folks at the top in either world, you will be billed as an “authority” by proxy.

I wanted to start there because I have always operated online as “this is just text on a screen.” That’s not to say that real conversations and real dialogue cannot be exchanged. But, for the most part, this is just text on a screen and I take nothing away from it. I also understand that some people’s opinions “hold weight” so it is important to me to make sure that I address these things on the front end so that the back end doesn’t break.

That said, the internet is fucking weird. Especially our own little corner of it; financial twitter.

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For the last several years — pretty much as long as I can remember doing this — I’ve been associated with @1simpletrader. On many occasion, there has been speculation that he and I are the same person. Funny as that may be to some, what is funnier is the fact that could not be further than the truth. I’ve never met nor plan on ever meeting him. That said, I did treat this person as I would a friend for the last nine years of “knowing” him and hope that this finds him as a wake up call that he desperately needs.

I first interacted with 1ST when he was going by a different username (@letstradestocks99 I believe) in a chatroom I found on StockTwits before I had an account there. I don’t remember how I discovered the link and why I went there but I did and he and I developed a casual acquaintance online.

The moderator of that chat would silo us in a separate room and have us “pitch him” our morning ideas that he would then filter off to the herd. At first, we both thought we were “moving up” in some proverbial non-existent ranks. This came to a head though when the individual started charging “rent” to people in the room. Us included.

Reluctant to pay anyone money for work I was doing for them I left. I joined StockTwits account and started to share my ideas there. I started to tag him in my charts because Trading View requires you to post in two boxes and thus a “friendship” blossomed.

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Objectively, 1ST’s “persona” is everything I hate and love about the internet. Especially fin-twit. Millennial doesn’t even begin to cover it.

After sticking his neck out 16 months ago and getting obliterated online, 1ST’s fragile ego was hurt beyond the point where his “big muscles” can repair, bro. This instance took place shortly after he and his online “girlfriend” (who may or may not really be a girl given he never knew what she looked like) broke things off with him.

To “prove a point to her” (and more importantly his own fragile “masculine” ego shrouded in muscles) he stuck his head out there publicly and made some “bold call” that didn’t pan out and resulted in the internet flaming him a for a couple of days. Rather than deal with it (or ignore it) and move on, he bailed on Twitter and StockTwits all together for about a year and a half and hung out in my chatroom.

The point is not that he was wrong, but rather, once wrong not only did he bail on social media, but also deleted the posts where it was quite obvious he was a jackass. only leaving you with the posts about his “being right.” You can see for yourself on his blog where the only post he’s kept up was the one that shows he “nailed the bottom!” of the 2018 crash:

I want to emphasize all of this to you so as to lift the veil behind who “he really is” both as a trader and as a person. I also want to bring to light his “trading behavior” and some of the annoying behaviors that exist in general on financial twitter.

Financial Twitter is notoriously rife with uneducated losers who try to tell you “a little hard work and elbow grease and you too can do it!” I am going to parse out the next statement and make it it’s own so that you understand how important it is.

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As I’ve stated, and continue to repeat, 90%+ will never make it as a trader and this is not a “work harder” business. There is no direct correlation between input of “hard work” and output of financial profit.

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Hopefully the above statement resonates with some of you. This isn’t me acting like I “know more than you” or that I am some “expert” or anything like that. These are just the facts. The only input to output correlation that exists in the market is the one that exists once you have developed a strategy that works for you.

For example, spending more time scanning charts or looking at historical valuations to get an idea of what you want to look for is one way extra input (hours) can benefit you. This is vastly different than the idea that “you can understand and learn how to trade stocks just by trying harder!” The second statement is bullshit.

No amount of reading about stocks will increase your ability to trade them. Just like no amount of reading about basketball will make you a better basketball player.

The reality is the market, outside of maybe poker(?), is the only business that I can think of where from day one both novices and professionals are on the same playing field.

Let’s use the following example; Imagine you want to go play pickup basketball and there was only one court to play at in your hometown. At that court the only way to play is to play in pickup basketball game. Each game is comprised of a mixture of players that have never touched a basketball in their lives and guys who are elite level professionals like Lebron James and Kevin Durant. In this scenario the moment you step foot on the court you realize the daunting challenge and disadvantage that you face.

If you were to take that example and apply it to the stock market you realize just how disadvantaged you are as a trader and why it is that I made the statement in the first place.

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Meet Reality

What I’m about to say will probably shock many of you who follow 1ST religiously and don’t know his story. I find that it is important and shows you just how insane all of this is.

I’ve never interacted with anyone, in real life or online, that has read more books on the stock market than @1simpletrader. I also think he is one of the best people who draw lines. What I mean by the second statement is that he has learned how to use the Trading View tool better than most. He knows a lot of the tricks on that platform and draws “really pretty clean lines.” I want to make clear however the important distinction between “drawing lines” and being a market technician or formulating proper opinions behind those lines based on data analysis. The distinction here is anyone can learn to draw lines. Lines without context and data interpretation are just that, lines.

Nothing is more evidenced by the statement I made than the following;

I’ve been interacting with @1simpletrader in one form or another for the last nine years. I do not know of ONE SINGLE profitable quarter that he’s had during that time.

The longest bull market in history and he could not string together three solid months where he was profitable. To exacerbate this, I also do not know of a SINGLE profitable month he’s had during that same period.

I am emphasizing this because I’ve dealt with a number of traders that were able to turn their trading around in a matter of weeks. I’ve also encountered a number of people that have turned their life around. The point here is not the profit so much as it’s the abject ego behind this dude. I also say this because both quietly, and vocally, he continues to play “above the fold” and “call out furus”…

@1SimpleTrader does all of this while being a 31 year old man who is living in his parents basement (I am not exaggerating, this is a factual statement) and working at a grocery store with his mom as a manager at that store.

Take that in for a moment.

“Muscle man” has never been able to turn a profitable month in a nine year bull market, talks down to people who are doing better at life than he is, is constantly misogynistic despite never having a real girlfriend in 9+ years, is so fucking broke he lives in his parents basement at the ripe age of 31, has no mathematical acumen, has never been educated beyond one semester of junior college, always has an excuse for why shit doesn’t work, makes memes nonstop as the “funny guy” yet gets offended and storms off when confronted about the reality of his situation, and echoes what he’s “right about” while working for mom at a grocery store full time.

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“Dude! Why are you being a dick?”

What triggered me to do this? Put short, two things.

For about six weeks now I’ve been expressing to @1simpletrader that for whatever reason his voice matters and people value his opinions. I expressed to him the danger and stupidity/ignorance of coming out “against the grain” about Corona Virus and calling it “just a flu.” I tried to tell him that he is someone who doesn’t have formal education beyond dropping out after a single college semester, is not very good at data analysis/math/science, and should not be using his voice to spread ignorance about something this serious without being qualified enough to do such. I attempted to express to him that this will be impactful to both peoples lives and their money. I attempted to explain to him that too many people are living check to check and this sort of thing can destroy countless lives and leave them with no where to go. I attempted (on multiple occasions) to express to him reading “another stock book” isn’t as beneficial as a psychological performance book or taking a math/stats class.

I walked he, and everyone else in my chat, through the logic step by step item by item and the strain that Covid19 would cause on the global supply chain and hospital systems. There are dozens of other items that I’m leaving out here because my goal is not to be an asshole. The point here is he ignored it. He ignored all of it and made a mockery of those who were trying to bring things to light all from the comfort of mom and dads basement. (See pictures below from 2/27/20. He has since been deleted from the chat)

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Too Stubborn

Attempting to explain this to him fell on deaf ears and ultimately it broke beyond the point of diminishing returns for me. And like the prepubescent millennial he is he took the criticism from “friend(s)” as hurt and ghosted. Even after an attempt to “normalize” things and reaching out he disappeared. But that is not the point that broke it with me. What did it for me was seeing him online continuing the same type of moronic behavior that has suppressed his ability to grow as an individual.

Personally, I have a brother that is an ER doctor in NYC. I have been affected by this pandemic on a personal level as many of my closest friends live in New York and my brother is braving things daily and attempting to do his part to help combat it. So when I log in daily and see bullshit like what’s below after attempting to reach out and express concern for why we have a social responsibility to not spread lunacy and after being met with ignorance, arrogance, and disrespect I have no qualms about “letting it rip.”

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Cliff Notes:

1. @1SimpleTrader and I have “known” one another 8 years (Fact)

2. Despite living in his parents basement and not having bills he’s not been able to elevate his life the entire time I’ve known him (Fact)

3. He’s never had a single profitable month that I know of trading stocks (Fact)

4. He draws pretty lines (Opinion)

5. He makes shitty decisions (Opinion)

6. He will bitch, complain, and blame everything and everyone else but himself when the shitty decision he makes doesn’t pan out (Fact)

7. He will gloat like a genius when he gets one or two ideas right (Fact)

8. He makes fun of people who are trying to better their lives/selves (Fact)

9. He calls people “Furus” while throwing out “fact based commentary” on the markets without ever having been profitable for a single month of the longest bull run ever

10. He still lives in mom’s basement at the age of 30 (Literal Fact)

11. He still works at a grocery store with his mother (again, Literal Fact)

12. He is still doing his part to help you destroy your bank account by using his social media “authority” to spread “trading ideas” that are unsustainable as evidenced by his lack of success (Fact)

13. He can only afford to put on “lotto size” (~$200 max) positions and all “trades” he lists should be assumed as such (Fact)

14. He is still making ignorant comments about the Virus (Fact)

15. He has never (to my knowledge) taken public accountability for making dangerously moronic comments (likely fact, will say opinion for now)

16. He has read more trading books than anyone I’ve encountered without being able to apply any results to his own trading

17. He has no more “authority” on the subject of TRADING PROFITABLY than Joe Exotic (opinion) or Eric Trump (Fact)

18. When one of his “trades” does not work he will tell you “It’s just a lotto” or “It’s okay to be wrong” (Fact)

19. When shit hits the fan he will attempt to undermine the source (likely how he’ll handle this) and deflect with “humor” (Opinion)

20. When undermining and deflecting will not work he will ghost (Fact)

21. There are worse/more repugnant things that I/we know about him that I have withheld…for now…